Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 0.015693 0.017803 0.020099 0.022783 0.025838 0.029208 0.033211
2025-03-23 0.012621 0.015575 0.019076 0.023534 0.029072 0.035737 0.044387
2025-03-30 0.010334 0.013496 0.017463 0.022818 0.029876 0.038891 0.051323
2025-04-06 0.008881 0.012146 0.016438 0.022512 0.030919 0.042194 0.058544
2025-04-13 0.007594 0.010804 0.015197 0.021672 0.031020 0.044095 0.063899
2025-04-20 0.007040 0.010381 0.015123 0.022376 0.033257 0.049076 0.074010
2025-04-27 0.006538 0.009960 0.014980 0.022924 0.035267 0.053856 0.084250
2025-05-04 0.006145 0.009648 0.014948 0.023602 0.037495 0.059118 0.095705
2025-05-11 0.005604 0.009046 0.014401 0.023404 0.038297 0.062195 0.103931
2025-05-18 0.005181 0.008585 0.014025 0.023423 0.039420 0.065841 0.113394
2025-05-25 0.004740 0.008048 0.013469 0.023079 0.039881 0.068396 0.121197
2025-06-01 0.004475 0.007781 0.013330 0.023415 0.041514 0.073054 0.133096
2025-06-08 0.004120 0.007333 0.012858 0.023149 0.042101 0.076005 0.142349
2025-06-15 0.003954 0.007204 0.012927 0.023856 0.044512 0.082450 0.158778
2025-06-22 0.003591 0.006685 0.012254 0.023133 0.044188 0.083811 0.165590
2025-06-29 0.003325 0.006320 0.011826 0.022822 0.044605 0.086577 0.175394
2025-07-06 0.003015 0.005844 0.011150 0.021971 0.043880 0.087051 0.180588
2025-07-13 0.002927 0.005788 0.011268 0.022684 0.046329 0.094011 0.199881
2025-07-20 0.002825 0.005697 0.011307 0.023240 0.048502 0.100596 0.219038
2025-07-27 0.002744 0.005640 0.011408 0.023928 0.051006 0.108084 0.240917
2025-08-03 0.002577 0.005391 0.011099 0.023727 0.051591 0.111546 0.254159
2025-08-10 0.002445 0.005204 0.010902 0.023746 0.052652 0.116125 0.270401
2025-08-17 0.002289 0.004954 0.010552 0.023397 0.052859 0.118822 0.282512